The situation, in which revenues from printing dropped due to widespread price reductions, continued until the first half (i.e. from April to September) of fiscal 1997 even though volume of jobs had increased. In the latter half of fiscal 1997 (i.e. from October 1997 to March 1998), however, even real growth rate declined by 2.6%.

In the beginning of 1998, the growth rate of offset ink shipments started to decrease, and in February it dropped slightly by 0.2% from the same month of the previous year. Then, from the first quarter of 1998, shipments of both offset ink and general ink saw negative growth from the previous year. During the calendar year 1998, total shipments of general ink dropped by 1.6% compared with 1997, while shipments of offset ink also declined by 0.8% during the same period. The shipped volume of films for photomechanical work and duplication decreased by 13.0% during this period, but this is partially attributed to increased application of DTP. As explained above, the negative growth in 1998 sales revenue was caused not only by reductions in prices but also a decrease in volume of jobs.

As for paper media, the flow of mass consumption has been changing significantly under circumstances in which the life style of the Japanese people is shifting toward a mature economy, in which consumption of paper materials is restricted due to environmental and natural resource issues, and in which the decrease in paper demand is being complemented by increased electronic information systems. Moreover, in the midst of the prolonged sluggishness of the economy, even enterprises that had been regarded as most outstanding companies also faced failure. Every company now began to understand that no temporary measures would be able to save them.

In 1998, the total volume of printing demand declined for the first time since World War II, which leads to the possibility that demand for paper media may have marked a historical turning point.

It can be said that in principal the number of books and magazines sold per capita has reached saturation in Japan. In 1998, the number of books bought by each person was 6.5 copies on average, which is a 15% decrease from the peak year when 7.7 copies were bought. The number of magazines bought also dropped from 31.3 to 29.7 copies during the same period, accounting for a 5% decrease.

Another structural problem comes from changes in types of publications sold. The characteristics of the publishing industry have greatly changed during the last thirty years.

When the third boom of paperbacks began in the first half of the 1970s, Kadokawa Shoten took the successful strategy of paperback planning and sales based on integration with movies and TV. Thereafter, a drastic shift to publications centered on entertaining contents began. On the other hand, publishers have recently adopted a policy of publishing paperbacks periodically, aiming for steady annual revenues, and have been launching paperbacks in a monthly cycle. As a result, paperbacks have become a type of product to be thrown away after reading.

Thus, comics enjoy great shares within sales revenues of leading publishers. For instance, the annual revenue of Kodansha is approximately \200 billion, of which \40 billion came from book sales, and \30 billion from advertising sales. The balance, about \130 billion, is from magazine sales. Within the magazine sales, the comic magazine share is fully \80 to \90 billion. Shogakukan and Shueisha, which are other major publishers, also show a similar trend.

Since the positions of books and magazines have reversed in terms of sales amounts from 1979, revenues from magazines have grown predominant, while books have been regarded as sub-ordinate for the publishing businesses. During the ten years from 1980 to 1990, about 2,400 titles of new magazines were launched, while in contrast, approximately 2,200 titles were discontinued during the same period. When a publisher grows larger, it becomes increasingly difficult to secure its revenue from book sales, so it must rely on magazine publishing to generate profitable advertising revenue. This is an actual trend in the publishing industry.

The sales amount of magazines sold through convenience store channels was \530 billion, accounting for more than 30% of the total magazine sales (\1,500 billion). This means that the nature of publications is further changing into that of consumable goods.

The publishing companies that have carried out the above structural changes have been forced to conduct, as it were, a precarious day-to-day management where return rates of books and magazines increase as new titles are launched one after another because many of them do not sell well. But, recently, there are some movements among such publishers to adjust their management policies, partially because the management feel the limitations in continuing their conventional management methods, or, perhaps, they can no longer afford to damp unsold publications.

Reviewing by media type, we can see that the sales of new media-related advertising achieved a 10.2% increase from the previous year thanks to the full scale operation of communication satellites as well as an increase in CATV subscribers and the like. This sector has enjoyed two-digit growth rates for two consecutive years. However, its share of the total advertising market is only 0.4%, not enough to push up the entire industry. Among the traditional media, the advertising revenues from four areas of major media and sales promotional advertising resulted in negative growth.

The average number of advertising insertions into newspapers was 528.9 insertions per month/household in 1998. It decreased by 10.4 insertions after five years intervals, a 1.9% decline from the previous year.

As for trim sizes, although the number of B4 size advertisements increased, the number of B-3 size advertisements, which is next most popular after B-4 size, dropped by 3.4%, indicating that the sizes of insertions are tending to become smaller. As for trends by regions, Northern Kanto and Tokai regions saw some increase from the previous year (see fig. 3).

Fig.3 -(piece/month/household)
The number of advertisement insertions by region

Region	1997	1998	98/97(%)
Tokyo metropolitan area	539	529	-1.9
‚s‚hoku area	415	395	-4.8
North-kanto area	485	491	1.1
Tokai area	591	596	0.8
Kinki area	523	507	-3.1
Kyusyu area	443	427	-3.8
Nation-wide average	499	491	-1.8

The exhibition and movie sector recorded two-digit negative adverse growth, taking the market size to the 40% level of the most flourishing year in 1990.

In recent years, the printing market for offices has seen two-digit minus growth on average, and other printing markets have also suffered from adverse growth.

Source:
Compiled by JAGAT from " Monthly Newspaper Insertion Advertising Report in the Metropolitan Area, December 1998 &qupt by Yomiuri Information Service