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Printing Industry Review 2002
FromThe White Papaer ont the Printing Industry for 2002-2003

■ASIA FORUM
Information Report Vol.6,No.2

< Part one >
November 10, 2003

Director of JAGAT / Ryoichi Yamauchi

*The Printing Industry's shipments dropped below eight trillion yen
*Worst ever slump in the volume of offset ink shipped and sold
*Largest ever decline in commercial printing
*Book sales boosted by the Harry Potter effect
*The publishing industry drives itself into a no-way-out situation
*Potential positive feeects of new movements
*Newspapers and radio take another step toward decline
*The stable magazine sector
*Free papers:Will they compete withflyers?
*Direct mail after the unusual year of 2001
*A new move in Internet advertisement
*The future outlook for the advertisement market

one The total value of shipments in the printing industry, which almost hit nine trillion yen in 1991 at 8,928.7 billion yen, will undoubtedly reduce to below eight trillion yen in 2002. By segment, all paper media segments except the book sector, which was boosted by the Harry Potter effect, posted a poor performance. Even among the listed companies, the electronic components sector was the only area that fared well. Under such circumstances, the flyer and direct mail markets indicated robust growth, while the increased diffusion of the Internet brought about a variety of changes.

With respect to printing business management, one remarkable change is that there were signs of the beginning of intentional corrections of overcapacity. The common issues to be addressed by the printing industry for the future are the development of digital networking and how to cope with environmental problems. Since these issues involve hurdles that could not be overcome by individual companies, there is greater need to seriously recognize the roles of industry trade organizations, which are expected to protect the industry from disadvantages arising from social movements and, preferably, to take the initiative in active contribution to society.

The printing industry's shipments dropped below eight trillion yen

The estimated value of shipments in the overall printing industry in the first half of 2002 totaled 3,841 billion yen, down 2.5% year on year. The combined sales across the 21 listed printing companies, which account for more than 30% of the industry's total value of shipments, totaled 1,260 billion yen, down 3.1% from the same period a year ago. The estimated combined shipments of small to medium-sized printing firms totaled 2,580 billion yen, down 2.2% year on year.

Japan's economy itself is not expected to stage a significant rebound in the latter half of 2002, staying level at best. If the printing demand in this period indicates the same decline as in the first half, the total value of shipments in the printing industry throughout 2002 will be 7,910 billion yen.

There is little doubt that the printing industry, which almost hit nine trillion yen in 1991 at 8,928.7 billion yen, will drop below eight trillion yen as of the end of 2002.

Worst ever slump in the volume of offset ink shipped and sold

Since experiencing another downturn in the latter half of 2001, the business climate in the printing industry has not shown any positive signs. This is the third slump since the collapse of the bubble economy and differs from the previous ones in terms of the volume of printing work. The volume of offset ink shipped and sold had already experienced a year-on-year decline for 13 months from August 2001 through September 2002 except in May 2002. On a moving average basis, this market recorded a 2.5% decline.

If we look at the past two post-bubble slowdowns, offset ink grew rather than fell during the first slowdown. In the second downturn, all we saw was that the volume of offset ink shipped and sold posted a year-on-year decline for five consecutive months from April through August 1998, with a maximum drop of 1.0% on a 12-month moving average basis.

October 2002, however, showed a 2.5% increase over the year, followed by December's 0.9% growth year on year, indicating along with other indexes that the economy has hit bottom. December 2002 saw sales of the advertisement industry posting a 2.4% increase from the level a year ago for the first time in 17 months. According to JAGAT's fixed point observation, sales for small to medium-sized printing businesses marked a 3.0% sink in November 2002 from the same period a year ago, followed by some improvement: a 2.3% decline in December, a 1.4% decline in January 2003, and a 0.5% increase in February to record the first year-on-year climb in 17 months. (Figure 1).

Largest ever decline in commercial printing

The most remarkable finding in the segment-by-segment status described in the fiscal 2002 mid-term financial statements of the listed printing firms is that all but the electronics sector, which showed year-on-year growth in sales, declined from levels one year earlier. Commercial printing experienced a significant fall of 7.9% from the previous year and publication printing a decline of 4.0%.
Another distinctive point is polarization in profitability. In sharp contrast to large companies, whose profitability is diminishing year after year, medium-sized firms with unique features have successfully achieved a high-level profit performance.

The operating earning rate of the leading three firms, which stood at levels of 5-7% until the mid-1990s, has been reducing each year since 1998. The rates of Kyodo Printing and Dai Nippon Printing sank to as low as 1.1% and 2.2%, respectively at interim closing for fiscal 2002. This reduction in profitability occurred in inverse proportion to the climb in the cost to sales ratio, closely reflecting lowering printing prices.

Meanwhile, TOKYO Lithmatic, Kosaido, Nissha Printing, Sunmesse, and Tosho Printing reported higher earnings and profits in their mid-term financial statements for fiscal 2002. Among these five, all but Tosho Printing achieved a high operating income margin of over 6%. Other companies that have a high operating profit on sales are Asia Securities Printing (19.2%), Takara Printing (17.9%), Hiraga (7.9%), Toppan Forms (7.6%), and Fukushima Printing (6.9%).

Asia Securities Printing and Takara Printing are companies that offer specialized solutions in knowledge-intensive fields to serve customers with disclosure needs. Toppan Forms and Fukushima Printing, specializing in form printing, are vigorous in the outsourcing business through the use of digital technology and in developing their original products. TOKYO Lithmatic has expanded business by carving out a niche with its strengths in digital data handling and short-run printing to serve professionals in neighboring industries. Nissha Printing has avoided competition with major companies and drastically shifted its market from commercial and book printing to industrial materials and electronics with a view toward overseas markets.

Financial statements, declared income data, and other performance statistics collected by the industry trade groups over the past few years show overall sluggishness in the industry, while a closer view reveals that medium-sized firms, like those described above, are making a good showing.

Book sales boosted by the Harry Potter effect

The Research Institute for Publications reported that in 2002 the value of shipments of publications totaled 2,310.5 billion yen, down 0.6% from the previous year. This marked the sixth negative growth year in a row. By segment, books experienced the first year-on-year increase in six years, 0.4%, with a value of 949 billion yen, while magazines posted a 1.3% decline over the year with 1,361.5 billion yen. The total sales volume of all publications reduced 2.0% from a year ago to 39,560.4 billion copies. The gap between the year-on-year changes in value terms and volume terms is attributed to some relatively expensive million sellers such as the Harry Potter books.

The Harry Potter books were the major driving force behind the rebound in the book sector to positive growth. The series sold a total of nearly 16 million copies, generating an income of 36 billion yen.

The publishing industry drives itself into a no-way-out situation
Structural factors affecting the publishing industry include dwindling birthrate and an aging population, diversifying media, and increased use of new forms of bookstores and libraries. The most serious problem here is that everything has ground to a standstill. Publishing houses are increasingly recognizing a no-way-out situation in their business as a whole, even while the dip in sales is leveling off in some sectors.

Regarding the resale system, for which a conclusion was reached last March, the publishing industry is showing more intense opposition to the flexible implementation of the system that has been strongly promoted by the Fair Trade Commission. This includes wholesalers' resistance to Chikuma Shobo's decision to allow no resale of its corpora and the objections to Bertelsmann's launch of a book club in Japan, which also caused a protest against the bookstores participating in the point service system from publishers and other bookstores. There has been no recognizable response from the Fair Trade Commission regarding these matters.

The number of new titles finally broke through the major barrier of 70,000 to reach 72,055 in 2002, up 4.4% or 3,052 titles from the previous year. Publishers are well aware that there are too many to be put on store shelves but they have to keep releasing new books to make ends meet. In spite of their efforts, the total volume of new titles published and the volume of publications per title continue to decline. Publishers are still running their business on a hand-to-mouth basis. While adjustments of shipment volume for improved return rates have contributed to reducing the return rate for four consecutive years in the book sector, some people believe this approach is sapping vitality from the overall market through lost sales opportunities. The number of bookstores, which has been falling, finally dropped below the 20,000 mark.

Potential positive effects of new movements

Meanwhile, firms that entered the publishing industry with new business models have been aggressive in opening additional outlets and the number of these stores has already reached some 2,000. Culture Convenience Club (CCC), the Tsutaya franchiser, operates 1,000 stores and is ranked among the top five in book sales. Book-Off, with a network of 713 stores nationwide, appears to be seeking expansion of its business into the arena of new books. GEO, which sells and rents CDs, videos, DVDs and books while also selling them secondhand, is growing at an extraordinary pace by taking advantage of its low-cost store operation techniques. With its strategy of multiple products through multiple sales formats, the company is successfully attracting a wider range of consumers.

The foundation of the publishing market is largely being shaken by a change in consumers' allocation of time and money, in response to the emergence of diversified media, and through a shift in population dynamics. Electronic dictionaries sell over three million units every year, which is equivalent to nine million paper dictionaries, and their market scale has become comparable to the 10-15 million copy level of the paper dictionary market in volume terms. Electronic dictionaries are transforming the industry structure as well as the electronics realm.

However, this does not mean there are no new initiatives in the publishing industry. We have seen attempts at improvement based on information technology, such as effectively using POS data, receiving orders from retailers through the Internet, and operating online bookstores. In this time of major transition as described above, however, the outlook for the publishing world cannot become bright without the emergence of a variety of new entrants and the development of new business models.

Newspapers and radio take another step toward decline

According to the survey conducted by Dentsu Inc. titled '2002 Advertising Expenditures in Japan,' the spending for advertising in Japan in 2002 totaled 5,703.2 billion yen, down 5.9% from the previous year.

The most noticeable finding in the 2002 advertisement market is that newspapers and radio, as advertisement media, took another step toward decline. Newspaper advertisement expenditure reduced to 1,070.7 billion yen, showing the largest ever drop of 11.0% from the level a year ago. The fall, which was also the largest among the advertisement media in 2002, resulted in a reduced proportion held by newspapers in the entire advertisement expenditures, from 19.9% to 18.8%, down 1.1 percentage points.
Declined advertisements from industries such as automobile and associated parts, real estate and housing equipment, and publishing mainly contributed to the fall. These industries are usually less likely to reduce advertisements in newspapers because of the newspapers' high reliability and reader demographics being well-linked with the target consumer groups.
In addition, the information and communications sector and the finance and insurance sector, both of which underwent major shifts in 2000 and 2001 that had contributed to significant expansion of the advertisement market, cut back on spending in newspaper advertisements rather than TV advertisements. Compared to the 1990's value of 1,359.2 billion yen, which accounted for 24.4% of the total expenditures, the newspaper advertisement sector declined 21.2% in value terms and 5.6 percentage points in share, in part impacted by the economy. This clearly suggests that the newspapers are on the decline as an advertisement medium.

Radio advertisements, just like newspapers, have been decreasing since 1991 in both value and share, although there is no specific negative factor. This trend was more obvious in 2002.

The stable magazine sector

Advertisement in magazines, which are the only paper medium other than newspapers among the four major media, has remained in the range of 400-440 billion yen with shares around 7%, since hitting the 400 billion yen mark in 1996. In 2002, the magazine sector maintained the 400 billion yen range at 405.1 billion yen, down only 3.1% from the previous year, experiencing the smallest decline among the four major media. The share stood at 7.1%, successfully staying at the order of 7%.

By magazine genre, 2002 saw a brisk performance in magazines targeting females. By industry, a year-on-year increase was posted in 'Foodstuffs' and 'Hobby/Sporting Goods,' while 'Cosmetics/Toiletries' stayed level. Since neither the consumers targeted by magazine advertisements nor the sponsoring industries are likely to change any time soon, the trends in the past few years will probably continue for the foreseeable future. Although some competition with the mobile telephone is expected, printed media will basically have the visual advantage, if the advertisement content is considered.

The TV sector registered a decline for two years in a row, finally dropping below the 2 trillion yen mark. However, as there is no sign of waning in the power of TV as an advertisement medium, a significant growth as seen in the 1999-2000 period (up 8.7%) would be possible during an economic recovery.

Free papers: Will they compete with flyers?

Overall sales promotion (SP) advertisement declined 3.3% from the previous year, indicating a drop smaller than the decline in the four major media or in the four individual media. On closer inspection, a year-on-year decline of 4.5% in the direct mail sector, which had been growing continuously even while in the doldrums, and a fairly good performance in the flyer sector are noticeable in 2002.
Flyers fared well at a 0.3% decline from a year ago (Figure 2).

Spending by the service industry, which has been serving as the impetus for market growth, managed to post a 0.9% increase as a whole, driven by a brisk business in entertainment and amusement facilities, the sector that accounts for the largest proportion of the expenditures after the mass media, and in agencies and food services. The mass media (mainly consisting of classified ads), the leading sector in the service industry, experienced a 9.4% fall. The retail industry, the largest contributor to the flyer market, stayed almost flat and indicated a 0.2% growth as a whole. Do-it-yourself stores, discount stores, department stores, and the combined total of specialty stores showed a negative growth, while supermarkets, the dominant sector in the retail industry, indicated a 9.2% climb. Sluggish spending (down 5.5%) by the real estate industry, the third largest component of the market, negatively impacted the entire flyer market. For the future market outlook, trends in free papers, which are now on the steady rise, are worth attention.

Free papers are defined as 'a newspaper-like medium that is delivered for free to specific homes or the homes and offices in a specific region, and are provided in the form of periodical information publications in tabloid or blanket format mainly containing local information that is useful in the everyday lives of the primary target of women and families.' As of autumn 2001, there are 1,182 papers issued by 1,061 publishers for a total circulation of 220 million. They have been distributed to distinctive targets, such as housewives, who often make purchasing decisions, and female office workers, who usually have a high disposable income, and have proven effective. Recently, free papers have more often been seen at train stations for free distribution.

For consumers, free papers are a medium very similar to flyers in terms of the type of product information contained and thus, may become a contender to flyers in the future.

Direct mail after the unusual year of 2001

A year-on-year dip in the direct mail sector in 2002 is mainly attributed to a slowdown after 2001's unusual growth, more specifically, a rise of as much as 8.5% over the year posted in bulk mailing by large businesses such as telecommunications carriers (for MyLine) and life and property insurers, and to a further shift from letters to post cards to save postage. (The scale of the direct mail market reported in 'Advertising Expenditures in Japan' is based on 'the postage spent on direct mail.' In 2002, the number of letters mailed for advertising declined 9.8% from the previous year and that of postcards increased 5.5%.)

In the direct mail sector, advertisement expenditure increased 0.7% between 2000 and 2002, while the comparable figure for the flyer sector was plus or minus 0%. This means that the negative growth in the direct mail market in 2002 might not be the result of an extraordinary change in the market foundation.

A new move in Internet advertisement

'POPs' (point-of-purchase displays) was the only sector that experienced a year-on-year increase in advertisement expenditure in 2002. SP advertisement sectors such as 'Transit advertisement,' 'Telephone directories,' and 'Exhibitions/Screen displays' indicated a decline from the levels a year ago, although there was no sign that their regular positions were about to change. 'Outdoor advertisement,' however, showed a downward trend.

Newly-emerged digital advertisement media continued to grow as a whole in 2002. The combined total of advertisement expenditures for satellite media-related and for the Internet (including mobile phones) reached 127 billion yen, up 5.3% from the previous year. Among the satellite media, CATV posted a remarkable growth (up 18.1%) in expenditure, thanks to an increased number of subscribers acquired through a robust demand for broadband services.

Internet advertisements, which were reported to be experiencing a temporary slowdown, showed a steady growth in 2002, too. This was the result of a rise in advertising through the Internet for mobile phone users by domestic clients who, for example, intended to expand their reach through large-scale promotional campaigns. These advertisers have been encouraged by the fact that the Internet user population, including users of Internet-enabled mobile phones, topped 50 million combined with the widespread availability of broadband communications, enabling them to appeal to potential customers with more impressive advertisements. 'Mobile' capability has opened new possibilities in Internet advertisement.

The future outlook for the advertisement market

The advertisement market suffered a year-on-year decline for two straight years in each of the past two economic downturns after the bursting of the bubble economy. This is the third time and we have already seen a year-on-year decline for two years in a row.

The 'Advertising Expenditures in Japan' report forecasts a 0.4% growth in advertisement expenditure across the four major media for 2003. The forecast is based on the fact that while a harsh environment is expected in the overall economy, a recovery in corporate performance and a rebound in private capital investment can be regarded as bright prospects for the business climate. In addition to this, active advertisement activities in areas such as information technology, automobiles, intelligent home appliances, and digital cameras will have a positive impact on the 2003 results.

The recent forecasts in this report series, however, appear to be inclined toward an optimistic tone overall. Whether it is for publishing or advertising, the domestic market trend forecast must factor in Japan's population dynamics. In the advertisement market, in particular, Japan has typically been following the U.S., but it may be time for Japan to depart from its traditional practice of following the U.S., the country that has a population growing at a pace of some 1% annually and is exceptional in the world of advertisement.

Part 2

2003/11/04 00:00:00